Bitumen Supplier : As we all know, many global variables such as the world’s economics, dollar fluctuations, US presidential elections,
and oil market changes all affect the petrochemicals,
bitumen supplier cycle and exports. Therefore, we have decided to bring some of these variables so that we can relate
how the market of bitumen and bitumen supplier change.
OPEC forecasts change from peak demand for oil
OPEC’s latest forecast reflects the continuing impact of the Coronavirus crisis on the economy and consumer habits. Other predictions suggest that a pandemic may
be the determining factor in the peak demand for oil and bitumen supplier. OPEC also said in a report that oil consumption would increase from 90.7 million barrels per
day in 2020 to 107.2 million barrels per day in 2030. This figure is 1.1 million barrels per day less than last year
OPEC forecast and more than 10 million barrels per day less than the 2007 forecast of this group of demand in 2030.
Effect of coronavirus on the oil demand and bitumen supplier cycle
According to the OPEC report, global oil demand will grow at a favorable rate in the first half of the period and will stabilize in the second half. Future demand will be lower than what they predicted due to the sustained effects of
quarantine and closures due to the outbreak of covid 19 on the world economy and consumer habits.
Although oil consumption for passenger cars, trucks and industry will improve with the revival of economies,
OPEC has expressed concern that future oil demand will be under the effects of factors
such as working from home and teleconferencing and improving productivity and Learning to electric cars.
Even before the outbreak of the pandemic,
increased climate change activity in the West and increased use of alternative fuels had scrutinized strong future demand for oil. Despite retreating from previous forecasts,
OPEC still expects demands for oil and bitumen supplier to grow.
In this year’s report on the oil and bitumen market,
OPEC raised the possibility of declining demand after 2030 due to developments such as faster use of electric vehicles,
higher fuel efficiency and further reduction of business and leisure travel after the pandemic.This scenario is not on any major technological advances, nor does it represent
the possibility of a complete reduction in demand.
Improvement of short-term oil demand and bitumen supplier
OPEC worries that a pandemic could permanently hurt oil demand,
with current and former officials saying it could put downward pressure on oil prices and challenge OPEC’s
efforts to balance ( oil and bitumen supplier ) supply and demand in the market. Moreover, this year, the group, together with its allies such as Russia in the form of the
OPEC Plus Group, reduced production by 9.7 million barrels per day, which was equivalent to 10% of global supply.
Unlike others, OPEC also anticipates demand for oil to increase in the next few years and predicts
that oil consumption will grow to 97.7 million barrels per day in 2021 and 99.8 million barrels per day in 2022,
which is higher than The level in 2019 and will reach 102.6 million barrels per day by 2024. Besides,
the 2024 figure is lower than the rate forecast in the 2019 OPEC report.
The group predicts that in 2021 it will produce more oil than 30.7 million barrels per day 2020,
but growth in supply from the US and other producers means that OPEC production in 2025 is likely to be 33.2 million barrels per day.However, in the long run,
OPEC expects oil demand to reach 109.3 million barrels per day in 2040 and possibly to 109.1 million barrels per day by 2045.
With respect to what OPEC believes,
the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the trend towards lower oil consumption in OECD countries and growth outside the organization.
As a matter of fact,
electric cars are gaining a larger share of the car market, and their battery economies are constantly improving,
accounting for more than 27% of new global vehicles by 2045. Still, OPEC hopes to increase production in the coming decades as its rivals decline.
Concerning Reuters, OPEC Secretary-General Mohamed Barkindo wrote in the introduction of this report:
Oil will continue to have the largest share of the energy basket until 2045.
What Saxo Bank of Denmark anticipates about the future oil and bitumen supplier cycle
Saxo Bank of Denmark foretells a recovery in global oil demand. It also believes that the absence of the Corona vaccine
will push oil prices to just $ 50 a barrel in 2021 due to rising oil reserves in 2020 amid low refinery margins and declining demand.
“Oil prices have been hovering around $ 40 to $ 45 a barrel since June,”
said Awal Hessen, head of the commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “Refinery profit boundaries,
which are the result of excess diesel and aircraft fuel resources, quickly fill storage facilities.”
Saxo Bank does not have much hope of rising oil and bitumen prices in the short term due to weak infrastructure. “As the Corona epidemic continues to affect fuel demand,
oil prices will be very limited in the coming months,” the Danish bank said. As we have mentioned before,
according to the forecasts of Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, the price of oil in 2021 will reach $ 60 per barrel.
So, in short, all these predictions and items affect the bitumen market, bitumen supplier and
producer cycle and oil market and prices in some ways. Among all these items, the pandemic of coronavirus
was not uninfluential in the oil and bitumen cycle.
More specifically, dynamic regulation of supply and demand in international markets will be the key to positive
or negative, regular, or irregular price changes in the future. These settings will depend on the dynamics of demand, the economy,
OPEC oil supply, non-OPEC oil and unconventional oil production.
Furthermore, global oil supply and demand trends from 2015 to the beginning of the Coronavirus outbreak,
as well as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast for a possible trend by the end of 2021,
indicate that global oil demand for supply will increase in 2021.